statistics

Five key things: �r��’s Brand Portal

ksoobria — Tue, 20 Feb 2024 16:41:41 +0000

Five key things: �r��’s Brand Portal ksoobria Tue, 02/20/2024 - 11:41

An organization’s brand is more than a logo, colour or slogan. It encapsulates its vision, mission, character, aspirations and essence. The �r��’s brand expression, Defy Gravity, reflects and conveys the community’s spirit of discovery, drive to overcome obstacles and promise of inclusive excellence.

To help the �r�� community bring Defy Gravity to life, the university recently completed a major revamp of its Brand Portal, which brings together resources, guidelines, strategy and assets.

“The Defy Gravity brand is an evolving story, and we wanted to ensure that the brand portal evolved as well,” said Tanya Kreinin, �r��’s assistant vice-president, brand strategy and chief marketing officer. “The new portal is an enterprise solution based on extensive consultation with the �r�� community and in-depth analysis of best practices in both public and private sectors.”

Here are five key features of the relaunched Brand Portal:

Understand the brand. Strong brands are built on strategies that authentically capture an institution’s vision, mission, values and character. The Brand section in the portal includes �r��’s brand story and brand themes and explains Defy Gravity’s underlying philosophy.
Telling the brand story. One of the ways by which the brand is defined is its ‘voice.’ That ‘voice’ can be heard in news stories, social media posts or even signage around campus. The portal has information about tone, storytelling principles and a comprehensive editorial style guide for anyone writing on behalf of or about the university.
Visualizing the brand. From logos and typography to image layout and video endplates, visual elements are among the most easily recognizable aspects of a brand. The Brand Portal includes extensive guidance on �r��’s visual identity, including university signatures, typography, brand colours and how to use the Defy Gravity logo.
The story in numbers. The recently added section on reputational materials, stats and rankings is a one-stop-shop for reputational and brand-building content. It includes frequently updated rankings and data, the Impact Presentation and key messaging so that the most current information is always accessible and easy to find.
Brand assets. Whether you’re building a multi-platform campaign, planning an event or just looking to update an email signature, the Brand Portal has assets that faculty and staff can leverage to animate the brand in all university communications. Some of the tools and templates users will find include presentation templates, event signage, branded merchandise, marketing and communications planning templates and ready-to-use video content.

Five key things: �r��’s Brand PortalFive key things: �r��’s Brand Portal

Kevin Soobrian

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How to look at polling data and vote strategically: �r�� statistician offers insight

ullahnor — Mon, 04 Jun 2018 17:30:12 +0000

How to look at polling data and vote strategically: �r�� statistician offers insight

ullahnor Mon, 06/04/2018 - 13:30

Cutline

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne takes questions after the most recent debate. She had hoped for a bump in polling, but on Saturday she acknowledged the election has been lost (photo by Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images)

Dee Keilholz

Topic

City & Culture

Faculty of Arts & Science

Ontario politics

statistics

On June 7, Ontario voters will cast their vote and choose a new government, and based on Kathleen Wynne's comments over the weekend, the Liberals may lose official party status.

In April, polling data indicated that roughly half of Ontarians have made up their mind. That leaves the other half still undecided and with an important decision to make, especially given the projected neck and neck race between Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Party (PC) and the New Democratic Party (NDP).

Public support for Wynne has nosedived since the campaign started, and recent polls have suggested even longtime strongholds could be lost for the Liberals. In Ontario, parties need at least eight seats in the legislature to be formally recognized. On Saturday, Wynne acknowledged that she will no longer be premier after the election, encouraging voters to elect Liberal candidates to prevent the NDP or PCs from securing a majority.

Jeff Rosenthal (below), professor of statistical sciences in the Faculty of Arts & Science, talks to �r��'s Dee Keilholz about whether we can trust the latest polls and whether there's ways to maximize the impact of our votes.

Can we trust the polls – in this election and generally speaking?

Generally speaking, I’d say ‘yes.’ Polls are not as far off as many people think. If you can take a truly random sample of people, even if you just sample 1,000 people out of 9 million voters, you still get quite accurate results. If you poll 1,000 people, the margin of error is down to about three per cent.

However, the challenge with polls and their accuracy is that it is really difficult to get a truly random sample. What if, for example, the people who respond to pollsters are also more likely to vote for a certain party? What if certain age groups are more likely to respond? Do people tell pollsters the truth? That’s what leads to biases and that's when polls can run into trouble.

Polls are a great illustration of the power of randomness. In fact, my main research area, Monte Carlo algorithms, uses this same kind of randomness to estimate quantities which are too complicated to compute directly.

What have the polls been predicting for the Ontario elections?

In this election, the polls project a close race between the NDP and PCs. The Conservatives will probably do better in their seat count than their vote count, so it's quite possible that the NDP wins more votes but the Conservatives get more seats. It is true, though, that seat projections are complicated, and there have been cases in the past where the forecasters got it wrong.

In the 2011 federal election, for example, forecasters almost unanimously predicted that it is extremely unlikely that the Conservative party would win a majority – but they did. I wrote a paper about this, suggesting a more accurate seat projection method.

So what should voters do to get a clear picture?

It’s smart to look at a bunch of polls, instead of just one. The easiest way to do that is to visit polling sites that take multiple sources into account. I recommend Calculated Politics or the CBC Poll Tracker.

What kind of polling data should voters pay special attention to if they want to vote strategically?

In Canada, we have a first-past-the-post system. Whoever wins in a riding takes that seat. That means strategic voting can really have an effect.

If you want to vote strategically, you should pay attention to the projection for your riding. Let’s say you want party x to lose and party y to win, but you’re also OK with voting for party z. You should find out if party y or z is most likely to win in your riding and vote for whoever is ahead.

Unfortunately, projections for ridings can be a bit tenuous, because they are based on the latest provincial polling and results of past elections in that riding, rather than actual polling data from that riding. However, I still think this is a reasonable approach – and your best bet if you choose to vote strategically.

What effect is voter turnout going to have on this election?

If the decision to vote is independent of political leanings, voter turnout has no effect because you still get the same relative proportions. However, if groups with certain political beliefs are more likely to vote – or not to vote – than others, that can indeed make a difference.

We saw that in the 2015 federal election. Voter turnout for 18- to 24-year-olds went from 39 per cent in the 2011 election to 57 per cent in 2015 because Justin Trudeau really connected with the younger demographic – and he won.

In this election, it appears that older people are more likely to support the Conservatives and are also more likely to vote than younger people. Younger people are more likely to support the NDP but less likely to vote. So, voter turnout is an important issue in this election.

Can the upcoming provincial election give us any clues as to how the 2019 federal election might turn out?

The Liberals in Ontario are expected to do quite badly in the upcoming Ontario election. It's not clear exactly why this is. Voter fatigue is one possible cause.

The question is will that affect the Liberal Party of Canada? Some of the federal polls suggest that the popularity of the federal party among Ontario voters is somewhat down, and that there is going to be a ripple effect. My guess is that the Ontario election won’t have a lasting impact. By the time the next federal election rolls around, this provincial election will already be ancient history.

What’s the likelihood of THAT happening?

lavende4 — Tue, 21 Jun 2016 15:11:48 +0000

What’s the likelihood of THAT happening? lavende4 Tue, 06/21/2016 - 11:11

Cutline

Sam Maglio: changes in probability shape people’s willingness to think, spend, choose and take action (Ken Jones photo)

Don Campbell

Author legacy

Don Campbell

Topic

Rotman School of Management

Sam Maglio

Marketing

Psychology

Subheadline

�r��’s Sam Maglio explains why an increase in probability feels riskier than a decrease

Probability estimates are constantly changing. A 20 per cent chance of rain suddenly goes to 30 per cent and we start thinking about packing an umbrella.

But how differently do we react when a forecast goes from a 40 per cent chance of rain down to 30? According to a new �r�� study, the probability of something happening can feel more or less likely to happen depending on an upward or downward change in an estimate.

“We wanted to know if the likelihood of a future event being revised up to 30 per cent would feel more likely to happen than it being revised down to 30 per cent,” says Sam Maglio, an assistant professor of marketing at �r�� Scarborough and the Rotman School of Management.

“If the latest estimate is 30 per cent, then it’s equally likely to go up or down or stay flat, but we have a tendency to perceive momentum – if things have gone up, we assume the trend will continue.”

The research, which will be published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, falls under the realm of subjective probability, also known as likelihood or risk. While past research has looked at how people interpret single estimates of the probability for a future event, the focus of Maglio’s research was on how estimates change over time.

In the past Maglio has explored the psychology of distance including how certain sounds can be associated with nearness and others with distance, and also how the direction people are heading can influence how they think about an object or event.

For this research Maglio and his co-author used a series of 10 studies involving uncertain events such as weather, climate change, sex, sports and wine quality to test how people perceive changes in probability. They found that upward changes in probability (i.e.: 20 per cent up to 30 per cent) cause events to feel closer and more likely than downward changes.

“It all stems from a common belief that a revision in probability signals a trend, reflecting what is known as psychological momentum,” says Maglio. “It simply means that people often conclude that trends will continue in a given direction.”

What’s more, Maglio says, people’s behaviour regarding those events changed despite the revised probability being the same. In one study, people at a farmers market were asked to choose between two free bottles of wine. One bottle was less expensive but was said to have no risk of contamination, while the other was more expensive but had a 15 per cent chance of being corked. People were more willing to take a risk on a bottle that went from a 20 per cent risk down to 15 than one that went from 10 per cent up to 15.

“This reflects that changes in probability shape people’s willingness to think, spend, choose and take action regarding those events,” says Maglio.

Maglio says the lesson here for marketers or brand managers is they may want, where possible, to focus on the message that a product or an event is on an upward trend. But if you’re in the not-so-desirable position of talking about something in decline, the best approach may be to focus on only the most recent estimate and not its downward trend or to assure consumers that the trend is not meaningful.

It also sheds light on how revising the probability for a future event changes how people manage those events.

“It’s human nature to think and wonder about the future, and that bleeds into decisions being made in the present,” he says.

“It’s important to know that there’s more to an event feeling riskier or more likely to happen than that event actually being riskier or more likely to happen.”

statistics

Five key things: �r����’s Brand Portal

How to look at polling data and vote strategically: �r���� statistician offers insight

What’s the likelihood of THAT happening?

Five key things: �r��’s Brand Portal

How to look at polling data and vote strategically: �r�� statistician offers insight